BANGKOK, Dec 15 — The international merchandise trade in the Asia-Pacific region is seen to rebound strongly in 2021, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, after a dramatic year for the global economy, according to findings by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
The Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Trends 2021/2022 briefs said the regional merchandise exports and imports have grown 23.1 per cent and 22.8 per cent respectively.
“Asia and the Pacific outperformed the rest of the world in 2021 with real export and import growth at 10 per cent and 9.1 per cent, compared to 7.7 per cent and 6.7 per cent globally,” it said.
The briefs said merchandise trade is also expected to continue recovering, though more moderately than in 2022 where regional exports and imports will grow by 4.1 per cent and 5.2 per cent in real terms.
“However, downside pressures to a robust economic recovery continue to exist. In particular, the uphill battles between the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and new variants increased global financial instability.
“The scaling back of fiscal stimulus are among the most immediate threats to global output growth. Developing economies are especially exposed to these downside risks,” it said.
United Nations under-secretary general and executive secretary of ESCAP Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana said regional cooperation will continue to play a significant role in achieving more efficient and resilient trade by enabling more cost-effective and impactful responses.
Meanwhile, the briefs said Asia and the Pacific remained the top destination for inward foreign direct investment (FDI), thanks to China and India.
It said the rebound in the first half of 2021 was driven by accelerated FDI flows.
“Intra-regional investments continued to be significant, making up 47 per cent of all greenfield investment to Asia and the Pacific in 2020.
“The region also maintained its position as the largest source of global FDI flows since 2018. Developing countries in the region accounted for 77 per cent of all outflows in 2020,” it said.
In 2022, the briefs said, FDI is expected to remain below pre-pandemic crisis levels in the region.
“Nevertheless, the coming into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and the recently concluded ASEAN Investment Facilitation Framework are expected to help boost more sustainable FDI in the region, particularly value chain-linked FDI, in the medium- and long-term,” it said.
The Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Trends 2021/2022 briefs are part of an annual series produced by ESCAP to support policymakers in developing short-to-medium term plans to mitigate adverse impacts from emerging risks and uncertainties in the global and regional economies.
They aim to maximise the potential of trade and FDI to contribute to sustainable development in an uncertain and changing trade and investment environment.
— Bernama
