By Danial Dzulkifly
SHAH ALAM, May 9 — The Unity Government coalition is projected to secure victory in the upcoming Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election, maintaining the status quo.
This is according to political analyst Azmi Hassan, who noted that local residents are very much satisfied with the state administration under the stewardship of Menteri Besar Dato’ Seri Amirudin Shari.
The Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow said this may also explain why the coalition, comprising Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional (BN), has focused its campaign on state and local issues.
This strategic approach is evident in the absence of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim throughout the campaigning period.
“I think the strategy is that, in Kuala Kubu Baharu, local issues take precedence over national issues. It is wise for the state government to take charge in this case, especially Amirudin.
“I need to mention here that there was an opinion poll (prior to the campaign) which indicated that Kuala Kubu Baharu’s constituents are very happy with Amirudin and the state government. This perhaps assured (Harapan) that there was no need for Anwar to come down to campaign and instead let Amirudin take charge.
“Because if Anwar does come down, then the focus would have been on him and national issues. So, I think that is a strategic decision,” he said as a guest on Selangor Journal’s Lunch on Us! programme today, which focused on the by-election.
Another factor which Azmi believes may help the Unity Government’s candidate Pang Sock Tao secure victory in the rural state constituency is the simple fact that she is contesting under the ruling party’s banner.
Voter turnout key factor
However, while the status quo is likely to be maintained in the Kuala Kubu Baharu seat, it will be with a reduced majority as a result of an anticipated lower voters turnout.
“Pang will have a significant impact here. Kuala Kubu Baharu voters know that (if Pang is elected) they can demand a lot from the state government, which may feel obliged to fulfil these requests.
“Given that Pang represents Harapan and the state government also comprises Harapan, it seems very logical (to vote for Pang) unless the voters want to indicate otherwise, which I doubt.
“So, in my view, the status quo will persist but with a reduced majority due to the projected lower turnout,” he said.
The analyst added that lower turnout is expected due to political fatigue among voters in general.
This is especially the case as Selangor voters had just cast their ballots for the State Election in August last year, which was also held a mere nine months after the 15th General Election in November 2022.
The 31-year-old Pang faces a four-cornered fight in the by-election as she looks to defend the seat for the Unity Government.
She faces Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) Khairul Azhari Saut, Parti Rakyat Malaysia’s Hafizah Zainudin, and Independent candidate Nyau Ke Xin.
The by-election was triggered following the death of its incumbent Lee Kee Hiong on March 21, after several years of battling cancer. The late state assemblyman first won the seat in 2013 and managed to defend it for three consecutive terms successfully.
During the State Election last year, Lee won the seat with a 4,119 majority, garnering 14,862 total votes against PN’s Teoh Kien Hong (10,743 votes), Muda’s R. Siva Prakash (1,186 votes), and PRM’s Ch’ng Boon Lai (527 votes).
Party vs party
Meanwhile, Azmi said this by-election appears to be very much focused on the contesting parties, particularly Harapan and PN, rather than the candidates.
He attributes this to the fact that the fielded candidates are relatively unknown to voters.
“This time around in Kuala Kubu Baharu, it is a party-versus-party, not a candidate-versus-candidate (scenario),” Azmi said.
In view of the fact that the state government is predominantly controlled by Harapan today, despite the presence of former arch-rival Umno, he said this could convince voters to back Pang come the polling day — previously, concerns were raised over Harapan supporters and some fence-sitters possibly boycotting the polls due to the cooperation with the BN lynchpin.
“This gives the perception that Harapan can effectively manage Umno, and Harapan voters in Kuala Kubu Baharu are highly satisfied.
“This is why, in the recent opinion poll, many gave Amirudin the thumbs up. It reflects the perception that the collaboration with Umno is under control,” Azmi said.
The Election Commission has set May 11 as polling day.
According to its latest electoral roll, Kuala Kubu Baharu has 40,226 registered voters, consisting of 39,362 ordinary voters, 625 policemen, 238 military personnel and spouses, and one overseas absentee voter.
