By Danial Dzulkifly
PAKATAN Harapan (Harapan) is projected to retain the states it currently governs — Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan — despite mounting challenges brought about by economic difficulties and fragmented Malay political support, according to political observers.
Perikatan Nasional (PN), as the closest competitor to Harapan, has capitalised on various factors, including growing dissatisfaction and the rise of conservatism within the Malay community, to gain momentum and put pressure on the current unity government and its aligned parties.
The PN coalition has tapped into these sentiments to strengthen its position and attract support from segments of the population that may have concerns or reservations about the current government’s policies or performance.
With the upcoming state elections scheduled for August 12, there is widespread acknowledgement among the government, opposition, and political observers that the results will significantly gauge the people’s trust in the Unity Government led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
It will mark approximately nine months since the government assumed office.
However, taking into account Harapan’s track record in the three states, political observers agree that the ruling coalition has a significant advantage.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said that based on the 15th general election (GE15) results, Harapan voters remain solid with the coalition.
This is despite voters’ uneasiness against Harapan’s ally in the Unity Government, Barisan Nasional (BN) and its chairman, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
“As I see it, it’s not the Federal government that will influence Selangor voters, but the other way round because any decision made in Selangor and also in other states will reflect the wishes of the voters and what they think about the current Federal government.
“While DAP and the non-Malay supporters of Harapan feel very uneasy working with BN’s Zahid, I think they are very pragmatic.
“The voters know that even though they don’t favour Zahid due to the stigma around him, they have no choice if given a choice between an Umno candidate and a PAS candidate. I’m sure they will not abstain from voting for BN as the alternative choice would be PAS. So they are pragmatic in this matter,” he said to Selangor Journal when contacted.
Selangor has 56 state seats, out of which Harapan won 51 in the 14th general polls in 2018.
Selangor Harapan election director Mohd Yahya Mat Sahri recently said the coalition is looking to retain this number for this coming election.
In 2018, BN won four seats while PAS secured only one.
Without a doubt, PN would aim to significantly reduce the majority held by Harapan, especially in the Malay-dominated northern Selangor.
The MB candidate
PN’s strategy revolves around establishing a dominant presence in the northern corridor, thereby diminishing the influence of their political opponents.
However, the opposition bloc faces a challenging task in their quest to wrest control of the state from Harapan, which has governed Selangor for the past three terms since 2008. Harapan’s incumbency and established political base in the state make it a formidable opponent.
Harapan is expected to retain its seats in urban areas, particularly those held by DAP. However, the Unity Government parties and PN are making determined efforts to compete for Malay-majority seats as well as mixed seats.
In addition to the major parties, the entry of the new party Muda adds a wildcard element to the state election. Muda has chosen to contest independently after feeling sidelined in seat negotiations with other parties. With similar principles as Parti Keadilan Rakyat (Keadilan) and Amanah, Muda is likely to contest in mixed seats, potentially transforming the competition into a three-cornered fight for these constituencies.
Despite numerous narratives that will be played by Harapan, PN, and even Muda, based on their ideologies in the state election, Azmi opined that for Selangor, the poster boy for Menteri Besar would be the most crucial factor in the campaign.
“For Selangor, I think the menteri besar candidate is very important. No doubt it will be (Dato’ Seri) Amirudin Shari and not a BN candidate as BN has much less influence in the state compared to Negeri Sembilan.
“But for PN, they haven’t yet announced who their poster boy for Selangor is, whether it’s Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali or somebody else. This is because for Selangor, the MB seat is a hot seat, so they need to announce it early because Selangor voters need to know.
“In this aspect, Harapan is way ahead of PN,” said Azmi.
Harapan’s Achilles heel
With Selangor being Malaysia’s most economically viable state, its incumbent advantage at the federal and state levels should translate into an electoral edge in the state elections.
Weighing in, Universiti Sains Malaysia’s political science professor Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid said this point is tampered with by the possibility that Harapan would concede some seats to BN, which Harapan supporters may find difficult to stomach.
“The Unity Government is trying its best to influence state elections via its economic policies, but they’re apparently not working, at least in the short term. Without performance legitimacy, what’s left of Umno to defend the Malay seats is racial legitimacy provided by its position as the protector of Malay interests and rights.
“But this itself is being eroded by its collaboration with Harapan, especially with DAP in the unity government.
Therefore, votes by discontented Umno voters may not necessarily end up in Harapan-BN’s favour,” he said.
Comparing this to Harapan-led Penang, Fauzi said things are more clear-cut for the island state to defend its government. Even then, the margin of its victory is predicted to be lower.
“Harapan states cannot leverage the Unity Government’s lacklustre performance on the economic front but have to rely on their own state governments’ economic management to shore up their credentials.
“Muda’s cause is a lost cause, but it can hope to secure some consolation votes from disaffected Harapan and BN supporters,” he said.
However, Fauzi also concurs with Azmi that the Menteri Besar candidate remains a key factor in Selangor, where the state administration can rely on its solid track record since 2008.
“The sentiment is still largely positive on account of Selangor’s own economic strength. The key figure for Harapan-BN is Selangor’s own menteri besar (Amirudin) who has proven to be his own man, out of Azmin Ali’s shadow,” he said.
This article first appeared in the Selangor Journal monthly July 2023 edition, published on July 8, 2023.
