By Ida Nadirah Ibrahim and Danial Dzulkifly
SELANGOR is positioned as the largest contributor to Malaysia’s gross domestic product and the centre of the nation’s economic development. This makes it a hotly contested state in the upcoming elections.
Despite Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) ambitions to take over the state, the much-touted ‘green wave’ of Malay support for its component party PAS that is forecasted by some to sweep through all six states will meet with obstacles, especially in Selangor.
For PN to gain control of the state, it must secure at least 29 of the 56 seats in the Selangor Legislative Assembly.
This would prove a challenge. In the 14th general election (GE14) in 2018, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (Keadilan) won 21 state seats, followed by DAP (16), Amanah (8), and Bersatu (6), all of which contested under the Pakatan Harapan (Harapan) banner at the time. Umno secured four seats while PAS had just one.
With 51 seats in hand, Harapan continued to administer the state government post-GE14, but with a bigger mandate and a stronger majority.
This time around, Dato’ Seri Amirudin Shari, who is the Selangor Menteri Besar and state Harapan chief, has expressed confidence that the coalition, along with their Unity Government partner Barisan Nasional (BN), can win at the very least 33 seats.
This number of ‘safe seats’ was determined through a recent survey, the details of which were only disclosed to the two coalitions in Selangor.
Amirudin believes that Harapan-BN can secure another seven seats that are considered marginal, although with no more than a 2,000-vote majority for each, and would enable the unity pact to form the state government with 40 seats and obtain a two-thirds victory.
Better-informed voters can turn tide
The key question in the upcoming state polls is whether there is vote transferability between Harapan and BN supporters.
Malay supporters of BN may be less keen to shift their support to Harapan candidates even though both parties have united at the Federal level. The same could be true for some Harapan voters towards the candidates fielded by BN.
Ilham Centre fellow researcher Mujibu Abd Muis said there are three groups of Umno supporters who would resist voting for Harapan — those who oppose the party’s president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, those who find Zahid acceptable but do not support the BN-Harapan alliance, and those who are dissatisfied with the current state of affairs, such as the issue of cost of living.
“In the case of Umno, it is very possible that there won’t be vote transferability among these three camps, where voters might choose to abstain altogether.
“Another group to watch out for is the youth because the majority of them were supportive of PN in GE15 due to the ‘(green) wave’ and their lack of experience (in politics). Therefore, PN had the upper hand for being in the Federal government at the time,” he told Selangor Journal.
Even though it is difficult to read the current trend on vote transfers among the youths, Mujibu said the popularity of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim seems to have built momentum in Selangor while the controversy surrounding Kedah Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor insulting the Selangor royals would have an effect on voters too.
“Because of these two factors, there may be some vote transferability from PN (to Harapan), but we are unsure to what extent,” he said.
Scenarios
A projection for the state election results by DAP’s Ong Kian Ming considers three main scenarios based on GE15 results at the parliament level for all six states.
In the worst-case scenario, 70 per cent of BN supporters and 20 per cent of Harapan supporters would vote for their political rival, PN.
The most positive outcome would see at least 70 per cent of BN supporters voting for Harapan and 100 per cent of Harapan voters voting for BN.
In agreement to this, Mujibu said it isn’t much of an issue for Harapan voters to vote for BN as many of them are aware of the formation of the Unity Government following the hung parliament in GE15 and have an understanding of the Malay-Muslim sentiment.
“What is important to them is how a stable government has to be formed to spearhead the country,” he said.
Hard to predict
The results of another survey conducted by the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute and published on July 5 indicate that there is no significant vote transferability between Harapan and BN.
According to the survey, 39 per cent of Malay voters in Selangor who previously voted for BN in GE15 last November stated their intention to vote for PN in the upcoming state election if it becomes a direct contest between PN and Harapan in their constituency. In contrast, only 15 per cent said they would vote for Harapan.
It stated that a substantial percentage of Malay voters for both BN and Harapan are showing a preference for PN candidates while a significant number of them have become ‘unsure voters’ — expressing uncertainty in who they will eventually pick.
The survey also revealed a higher probability of Malay BN voters shifting their support to PN candidates and this outcome grants PN an advantage, particularly in the 39 Malay-majority seats in the state.
These seats include Sungai Air Tawar, Sabak, Sungai Panjang, Hulu Bernam, Sungai Burong, Permatang, Bukit Melawati, Ijok, Jeram and Kuang, all of which were won by their incumbents with less than a 3,000-vote majority and are at risk of either going to PN components parties or being retained by them.
However, at places such as Batang Kali and Gombak Setia, both incumbents, Bersatu’s Harumaini Omar and Keadilan-turned-Bersatu assemblyman Hilman Idham, had won with a more than 10,000-vote majority.
Mujibu noted that the scenario has, however, changed since the last general polls eight months ago and that the patterns in the last two elections cannot be used to predict the outcome of the upcoming state elections.
Citing marginal seats that garnered 1,000 to 2,000 majority votes as an example, he said the increase in the number of voters following the implementation of Undi18 in December 2021 and the right strategies could determine a different outcome.
“If BN and Harapan are able to get hold of their grassroots and make them understand the pact between the two coalitions, there would not be many issues.”
What’s on offer
Oh Ei Sun, a political analyst from the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, also believes that “many disappointed Umno supporters are likely to switch to PN, as they may not align with the supposed liberalism and multiculturalism of Harapan”.
As a result, it is crucial for both coalitions to focus on what they can offer in terms of governance to attract voters.
Despite PN’s efforts, it is evident that the coalition lacks a strong narrative for Selangor, and many voters in the state are pragmatic and less loyal along party lines.
Also, whether the votes garnered by Keadilan’s turncoats like Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali in the last state election will translate into support for them again under PN, remains to be seen.
Harapan’s 15-year track record, including Azmin’s one-term tenure as Menteri Besar, has given them an advantage in terms of experience and governance.
Additionally, PN’s coalition lacks a robust multicultural component, and some view Gerakan as lacking the credentials to bring in non-Malay support in urban areas, which could further hinder its chances.
The state assembly elections in Selangor, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu are scheduled on August 12.
This article first appeared in the Selangor Journal monthly August 2023 edition, published on August 5, 2023.
