By Nadirah H. Rodzi
SHAH ALAM, Aug 13 — Official results of the state elections unveiled today showed Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s ruling coalition successfully thwarted a threat posed by his political opponents, with analysts believing this victory will allow him to solidify his administration.
The ruling and opposition coalitions each retained control of three states.
Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (Harapan) coalition, with the help of ally Barisan Nasional (BN), managed to hold on to its strongholds in Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang, while the opposition bloc Perikatan Nasional (PN) defended Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu.
Prof Azmi Hassan, senior fellow at Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said it is clear Anwar has full support from the supporters of his Keadilan party and its long-time partner DAP.
“In Selangor, for example, candidates from Keadilan or DAP won big with huge majorities. This means the leadership and party support is strong,” he told Selangor Journal.
However, Anwar’s victories did not come easy, said Azmi.
Does Harapan need to review pact with BN?
While Harapan and BN triumphed in Selangor, PN made huge gains compared with the last vote in 2018.
Despite failing to wrest Harapan strongholds, official results saw PN securing 22 out of the 56 seats, denying its rival a two-thirds’ majority of the assembly in the country’s richest state, with its candidates picking up between 15 to 30 per cent more in most seats of the total votes compared with GE15 last year.
This prompted experts to question if Harapan needs to review its cooperation with its long-time nemesis, seen as a liability.
“What we want to know is, how much did the support from Keadilan and Harapan go to BN candidates? (Because) we see the number of BN’s Umno supporters helping Harapan candidates is meagre.
“And for Harapan to make headway in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan was not expected as it would rely on Umno’s performance,” he said.
Previously, a pre-election survey among Malay voters in Selangor found no significant vote transferability between Harapan and BN, revealing BN Malay voters may not have necessarily chosen Harapan candidates and vice versa.
Experts believe this is due to the decades-long feud between the two political giants, and differences in views and values.
Yesterday’s state polls marked the first election in which the Harapan-BN alliance, bitter enemies turned government partners after the November 2022 general election, was tested.
‘Malays stick with PN’
“It’s quite clear we saw a reaffirmation of GE15. You can call it a green wave or whatever you want, but the Malays are sticking with PN, particularly PAS, and the Malays cannot accept Umno working with the unity government, particularly DAP,” University of Tasmania Asian Studies professor James Chin told Selangor Journal.
“I think the results spook the foreign community and foreign investors. They thought Anwar could pull back some Malay voters with his reputation, but that didn’t happen. I think that’s one critical angle,” he said, adding that circumstance has led to votes by supporters of Umno to be transferred to PN instead.
Due to this, Universiti Malaya academician Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi believes “the green wave must be addressed comprehensively”.
“The status quo result means Anwar’s unity government must strengthen party machinery to increase support, especially in Malay-majority areas,” the political analyst told Selangor Journal.
“Even though it was status quo, it was quite a blow to Anwar. Two things are going on; the first is the appearance of another threat to Anwar and Keadilan, which is (Datuk Seri Mohamed) Azmin Ali and his allies in controlling urban areas, and the second is the PN Malay-majority areas in north Selangor strengthening its position. Harapan needs to address this,” he said.
Yesterday, former minister and Anwar’s wingman Azmin won in Hulu Kelang with 25,597 votes against Harapan’s Juwairiya Zulkifli’s 23,980.
Redress economic discontent
Echoing the sentiment, Prof Wong Chin Huat believes PN’s expansion is very much the collapse of Umno, which won only four out of the 18 seats it contested in Selangor and Penang.
“It shows two things: Malay voters will pick the latter when the Umno base is forced to choose between a multiethnic and a monoethnic coalition. Umno lacks credible and effective leaders nationally and in the five states outside of Negeri Sembilan, so making a comeback is unlikely,” the political scientist at Jeffrey Sachs Centre on Sustainable Development, Sunway University, told Selangor Journal.
Wong said to improve support, Harapan needs to deliver more economic benefits to ordinary citizens, among others, so the basis of economic discontent is redressed.
“Harapan needs to build an atmosphere and create a public appetite for a political truce, including allowing impartiality and independence of public agencies like the Attorney-General’s Chambers and the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission. Malays support the underdog if the government is seen as hypocritical with selective prosecution and impunity.
He said effective communication plays a crucial role in dealing with divisive issues as wedges are drawn between Harapan and Umno.
“Aside from that, it is crucial for the coalition to gradually prepare to assist Umno’s reinvention and review the single-slate format for the Harapan-Umno coalition,” he said.
