SHAH ALAM, Oct 7 — The Pelangai by-election in Pahang is expected to conclude in favour of Barisan Nasional (BN), as it maintains broad support among the electorate there, said research house Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE).
This is based on its early analysis of the 15th general election’s (GE15) results on November 19 last year, where the incumbent, BN’s late Datuk Seri Johari Harun, won the state seat with a 4,048 majority.
It said BN’s current candidate Datuk Amizar Abu Adam, is likely to defend the seat Johari won due to the strong support of voters aged 50 and above.
“The percentage of voters who came out for GE15 last year to vote for the Parliamentary and state seats was 77.1 per cent or 16,339 voters. For this by-election, the Election Commission has recorded nine voting districts encompassing 16,456 voters.
“Based on the post-GE polls, for most by-elections, between 60 to 65 per cent of voters are expected to turn up. Pelangai’s demographics are 74.3 per cent Melayu, 18.2 per cent Chinese, and 7.5 per cent Indian,” IDE said in a statement yesterday.
BN’s strongest support base lies in Manchis, Sungai Gapoi, Telemong, and Sungai Perdak, areas where its opponent Perikatan Nasional received low support.
“For example, during GE15 PN only obtained five votes from Temelong. From the four voting districts, BN can expect support from 3,000 to 4,999 voters, giving it a 95 per cent edge in these areas,” it said.
For Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) voting districts, BN and PN should expect a hard fight for voters’ support. IDE noted that in these Malay-majority areas, PN has an edge regarding the support of youth voters.
“Felda voters aged 50 and above are still loyal to BN. However, in GE15, it won all Felda areas with over 54 per cent on average of the votes.
“For the by-election, PN’s efforts to garner support among Felda settlers may be advantageous, as it can expect between 50 to 55 per cent of voters aged 40 and below to support them,” IDE said.
Per the by-election’s current trends and the GE15 data simulation projections, the research house said the highest calculations predict BN having 33 per cent more votes than PN, wherein BN obtains 64 per cent of the votes while PN obtains 31 per cent.
For the lowest calculations, BN obtains a marginal 10 per cent difference with PN, based on the percentage of those coming out and the shift in support from youth voters.
“Even in the lowest estimates, BN can plausibly win by a razor-thin margin against PN. From our social surveys, voters are hoping for change on economic issues and living costs as national concerns,” it said.
Pelangai’s polling date is today, where Amizar is going up against PN’s Kasim Samat and former Umno Youth member Haslihelmy DM Zulhasli, who is contesting as an Independent candidate.
