By Danial Dzulkifly
SHAH ALAM, Aug 11 – Think tank Ilham Centre has said the outcome of the six state elections will be influenced by three pivotal factors: voter turnout, the transferability of votes between Pakatan Harapan (Harapan) and Barisan Nasional (BN) supporters, and the inclinations of young voters.
The study conducted during the election period suggests that a prevailing moderate political climate could lead to a reduced voter turnout, based on observations of racial inclinations and the prevailing ambience of the current campaign.
“In the observation of voter sentiments on the ground involving these six states, the situations varied. During the study period, only Selangor and Kedah were perceived by voters as somewhat heated due to the noticeable clash between the Harapan-BN coalition and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
“In contrast, the campaign atmosphere in the other four states felt rather bland and ‘tame’. This can be observed from the local political talk receptions, the flag wars, and very minimal physical campaigning.
“The ‘battle’ was more concentrated on social media. The response to local talks and vote canvassing received a lukewarm reception from voters and an overwhelming focus on national issues caused local or state matters to be overshadowed.” the think tank noted.
They also projected that out-of-state voters are not likely return home to vote.
Similarly, the political landscape has shifted with the merger of Harapan and BN into the Unity Government which effectively reframed the electoral contest into a two-horse race between the coalition and PN.
“Intriguingly, the research points to a distinct disparity in loyalties between the Umno-BN and Harapan camps. In certain constituencies, Harapan supporters appear amenable to casting votes for BN. Conversely, a palpable reluctance is detected among Umno or BN advocates when it comes to endorsing Harapan.
“Over a quarter (27 per cent) of them expressed reticence about voting for Harapan, often citing the influence of the DAP party. This malleability of votes between Harapan and BN isn’t consistent across the board and demands a granular analysis in every constituency,’’ said Ilham Centre.
Lastly, insights from the 15th General Election indicate a noticeable bias among young voters, especially those aged between 18 and 25, towards PN.
The research done during this election period by Ilham Centre reaffirms that trend despite concerted outreach efforts, such as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s initiative to engage with students on campuses.
“Harapan faces an uphill battle in courting this demographic. Current initiatives, while commendable, have yet to make significant inroads in shifting the political loyalties of these young electorates,’’ said the think tank.
The study conducted by Ilham Centre gathered samples based on the population of the six states (Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan), involving 2,304 participants
The study commenced from July 29 to August 8, 2023.
Additionally, 48 respondents participated in in-depth interviews, encompassing young adults, local leaders, and women, according to the think tank.
