KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 8 — AmBank (M) Bhd said Malaysia is on track to record a 4.0 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year and 4.5 per cent for 2024, following a marginal contraction in September’s Industrial Production Index (IPI).
The Statistics Department reported a marginal 0.5 per cent contraction year-on-year (y-o-y) yesterday in September 2023’s IPI after recording negative growth of 0.3 per cent in August.
AmBank, in a note, said manufacturing production is expected to remain under pressure in the near term as guided by the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which continues to gyrate in the contractionary region.
It expects the situation to improve in 2024, with the World Trade Organisation looking at a rebound in global exports.
“Additionally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently upgraded its GDP forecast for China by 40 basis points to 4.6 per cent in 2024, hence offering some hope for improved manufacturing activities,” the research house said.
However, escalating geopolitical risk, a prolonged period of high-interest rates and uncertainty concerning China’s real estate market are key risk factors which could impair this outlook.
Yesterday, Chief Statistician Datuk Seri Mohd Uzir Mahidin said the decrease in September’s IPI was mainly influenced by the 5.2 per cent downturn in the mining sector.
Conversely, the manufacturing sector returned to a marginal 0.4 per cent growth in September 2023 after three consecutive months of declining trend, while the electricity sector rose by 2.5 per cent versus 1.9 per cent registered in August 2023.
— Bernama
