KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 12 — Maybank Investment Bank (IB) expects a steady unemployment rate of 3.4 per cent in 2024.
In its research note today, it said the unemployment rate eased to 3.3 per cent in November 2023 (October 2023: 3.4 per cent), the level just before the Covid-19 outbreak, as employment growth continued to top labour force growth.
In November 2023, employment growth recorded 2.0 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) while in October 2023, it was 2.0 per cent y-o-y.
“Jobs increases were registered across all sectors, and informal jobs again hit a fresh record high.
“Given the 11 months of 2023, the jobless rate stood at 3.4 per cent. The likely outcome for a full-year 2023 unemployment rate is 3.4 per cent versus our estimate of 3.5 per cent. Hence, we expect the rate to be stable at 3.4 per cent in 2024,” said Maybank IB.
According to the Statistics Department, jobs growth in November 2023 continued to expand in the services sector, particularly in information and communication, food and beverage and transportation and storage activities, as well as the manufacturing, construction and mining and quarrying sectors.
However, employment in the agriculture sector declined.
Meanwhile, the youth unemployment rate eased to 10.6 per cent in November 2023 (October: 10.7 per cent), although it is still above the pre-pandemic low of 9.9 per cent in December 2019.
Informal jobs that are “own account workers”, such as those earning daily income, smallholders and gig workers, have been rising since January 2021 to 2.39 million and reached a new peak of 2.99 million in November 2023 (October 2023: 2.985 million).
This was due to growth in informal jobs outpacing total employment growth of 6.6 per cent to 2.4 per cent for the 11 months of 2023, said Maybank IB.
— Bernama
