KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 19 — Malaysia’s economy is expected to maintain its growth trajectory this year at a faster rate of between 4.4 per cent and 4.8 per cent, according to investment banks.
Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) has maintained Malaysia’s 2024 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast at 4.4 per cent, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, a rebound in exports of goods and services, as well as positive investment growth momentum.
“Given the stable Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) monetary policy and job market, coupled with Budget 2024’s income measures to offset the outlook of higher inflation, we expect consumer spending will be resilient this year,” it said in a research note today.
In addition, it expects a rebound in exports of goods and services amid signs of the manufacturing sector upturn, underpinned by the technology industry upcycle and sustained tourism recovery momentum.
The robust approved private sector investment of over RM250 billion per annum since 2021 is translating into rising actual or realised private investment, and progress in ongoing major infrastructure projects and pending or prospective new projects would support the investment growth momentum, said Maybank IB.
Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) anticipates Malaysia’s economy to grow at a faster pace of 4.8 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), led by continued household spending, tourism recovery and realisation of investments.
“The easing global interest rate environment, ebbing inflation figures and turnaround in trade activity are also expected to support growth.
“A further improvement in tourism activities, a recovery from the tech down-cycle and stronger external demand will provide support to exports. Meanwhile, continued employment and wage growth will support household spending,” it said.
On inflation, HLIB continues to expect BNM to maintain the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 3.00 per cent for the rest of the year following the central bank’s expectation that both headline and core inflation will remain modest in 2024.
Public Investment Bank Bhd said Malaysia’s promising outlook would elevate the country’s real GDP growth to 4.7 per cent in 2024, a revision from its earlier projection of 4.5 per cent.
“The outlook appears promising as the global economy braces for potential uncertainties, likely mitigated by Malaysia’s implementation of strategic initiatives such as the slightly expansionary Budget 2024, National Energy Transition Roadmap, New Industrial Masterplan 2030, and the Mid-Term Review of 12th Malaysian Plan, all aligned with the Madani Economic Framework.
“This alignment is expected to elevate Malaysia’s real GDP growth, supported by robust domestic demand, continued foreign direct investment inflows, sustained and prospective investments, and a resurgence in electronics exports amid tech cycle recuperation, said Public Investment Bank.
— Bernama
