By Danial Dzulkilfy
SHAH ALAM, July 21 – Youth voters have a significant impact on the outcome of any election, and it is no different in the upcoming state elections in Selangor, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
Recognising this crucial factor, political parties have been placing more emphasis on reaching out to young voters, understanding their interests, aspirations, and the issues that matter to them.
All political coalitions, namely Pakatan Harapan (Harapan), Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), have employed various strategies, including social media campaigns, targeted messaging, and youth-oriented events, to capture the attention of young voters.
Moreover, political parties are increasingly addressing youth-centric issues such as education, employment opportunities, climate change, social justice and digital rights to resonate with the concerns of the younger generation.
While there have been multiple narratives played by all sides, including addressing the welfare of gig workers, improving employment opportunities and advocating for progressive wages, political observers are primarily concerned about whether young voters will actually come out to vote this time around.
During the 15th General Election (GE15), 73.89 per cent of eligible voters participated. Though not the highest percentage, it recorded the highest-ever number of voters (due to the lowered voting age) in Malaysia’s electoral history, leading to the current composition in Parliament today.
Political analyst Azmi Hassan, a fellow at Akademi Nusantara, opined that the upcoming state elections would see a similar turnout.
“The turnout for the state elections will likely be similar to the last general election, and I don’t think it will exceed 74 per cent. Although I consider this state election as a referendum on the Unity Government, I don’t think this perception is valid for the voters in this case.
“In the last election, not only Malay youths but also Malay voters, in general, were preoccupied with PN. However, since last November, a lot has happened, and most probably those who voted for PN during GE15 are now considering trying a new party.
“PN was relatively new at that time compared to BN or Harapan, so I presume they wanted to test something new,” he told Selangor Journal.
Azmi said after eight months since the general polls, much can be learned, especially on the performance of PN as an opposition.
“Therefore, I expect that there will be some Malay youths who align with the PN coalition, but it won’t be as significant as it was last November,” he said.
According to the data released by the Election Commission on the six states holding their elections this August 12, the highest category of voters belongs to the 21 to 29 bracket, involving 2.17 million voters out of the 9.77 million total number of voters in the six states combined, with Selangor recording the highest at 851,180 voters.
Selangor also has the highest number of young voters between the ages of 18 and 20, totalling 274,194 people out of the 661,905 people in this category.
This was followed by Kedah with 104,284 voters, Kelantan (96,513), Penang (67,633), Terengganu (64,264) and Negeri Sembilan (55,017).
Voting trends based on GE15
Political analyst Bridget Welsh from the University of Nottingham Malaysia provided interesting insights into the voting trends among different ethnic groups based on her analysis of GE15 election data.
The data showed that Malay voters had the highest turnout rate at 79 per cent, followed by Indian voters at 78 per cent. Chinese voters exhibited a turnout rate of 69 per cent, while voters from other ethnic backgrounds had a turnout rate of 59 per cent.
Azmi also highlighted that voting patterns in Malaysia, irrespective of age, are still largely based on party lines rather than individuals.
“The older generation will still vote for the party. I think this is generally the same principle held by other voters because they feel more comfortable aligning with a party rather than an individual candidate.”
Azmi also pointed out the example of Muda, which, despite the help of Harapan, did not manage to gain much support in GE15.
“Young voters are different. They are more willing to try new things. But then, considering the performance of Muda, [even] with the help of Harapan, they still did not get the support they needed.
“So, whether you’re an older or a younger generation voter, you still stick to the party. In this case, when making a decision on who to vote for, the candidate comes second.
“Only in a few instances does the candidate play a greater role than the party as a decisive factor,” said Azmi.
Determining factors for voter preference
Another political analyst, Oh Ei Sun from the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, has echoed Azmi’s views, stating that the voter turnout for the upcoming elections is unlikely to surpass the percentage achieved during GE15.
However, Oh opined that a considerable number of young Malay voters may choose to support the PN coalition in the upcoming elections, particularly because of the well-organised election machinery of one of its component parties, the Islamist party PAS.
“As these are state elections, the turnout is likely to be at most about the same level as the last general election. But if PAS is as efficient as before in eliciting its supporters, both old and young, then another round of the ‘green wave’ is distinctly possible.
“In more urban states such as Selangor and Penang, socioeconomic factors such as employment and price hikes will play a major role, to the disadvantage of incumbents. However, non-socioeconomic factors such as religion and race will also come into play,” he said.
Oh based his observations on GE15 when, it appeared that a significant number of first-time voters preferred PAS, in particular, and Bersatu by association.
Currently, the state governments of Selangor, Penang, and Negeri Sembilan are led by Harapan, while PN leads Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.
Based on previous voting patterns, Undi18 co-founder Tharma Pillai also pointed out that a large chunk of young Malay voters supported PN in GE15.
However, PN’s support might have eroded since then as some of its top leaders, including coalition chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, have been implicated in corruption cases.
“Leading up to GE15 and even today, there is a strong sentiment against BN as they were synonymous with corruption cases and abuse of power, which made PN more appealing to young voters.
“But now there is a sense of disappointment with PN as its leaders too are implicated in corruption cases. So they cannot campaign that they are a clean government,” he said.
Despite these challenges facing PN, Tharma pointed out that BN still faces a tough challenge to shed its tainted image, relating to the corruption charges faced by Umno party leaders.
“There will be cases where BN and PN will face off against each other. In this situation, frustrated voters may not vote for either.
“This time around, while it is expected that voter turnout will be lower than GE15, maybe around 65 per cent, it will be a very complicated affair to determine where youth voters will vote based on these factors,” he said.
