By Nadirah H. Rodzi
AS the state elections approach, Pakatan Harapan (Harapan) and former rival Barisan Nasional (BN) appear to have an advantage in their political campaigns by focusing on national-level issues that would bring prosperity and a better quality of life to the people.
The Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim-led Harapan is addressing socioeconomic concerns and has unveiled the Madani Economy Plan to transform Malaysia into one of the world’s top 30 economies in the next 10 years.
The plan seeks to establish a specialised financial zone in the Iskandar Malaysia area in Johor, review minimum wage standards, promote female participation in the workforce, stamp out corruption and reduce our dependence on foreign labour.
Although the ultimate goal is to win over the economic powerhouse of Selangor, Anwar’s Unity Government believes that offering a secure future for all Malaysians will strike a chord with the state’s highly savvy voters who struggle with bread-and-butter issues living in the most expensive region in the country.
Many believe that the polls in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Penang, Negeri Sembilan and Selangor are crucial for Anwar and his administration, as they are seen as a referendum on his leadership.
The last general election in November resulted in a hung Parliament, leading to the alliance between Harapan and former nemesis BN.
Although the state elections only comprise six states, Prof Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said the total number of people eligible to vote — at almost 10 million — constitute half of the total voters in the entire country.
“So, I think the result is more of a signal (of confidence) towards the Federal government,” Azmi said.
A recent survey conducted among Malays in Selangor has revealed a positive outcome for the prime minister and the Unity Government he heads.
Of the 1,068 respondents who participated in the Selangor Malay-Only Public Opinion Survey, 69 per cent expressed their approval of Anwar’s performance, while another 68 per cent supported the Unity Government.
But experts still disagree on whether the ruling coalition can retain its hold over its two bastions Selangor and Negeri Sembilan as the two states’ demographics show significantly more Malay voters than non-Malay ones.
Meet them halfway
Anwar’s multicultural Harapan has long struggled to woo ethnic Malay voters, following the deep ideological divide in the community that makes up more than 60 per cent of the population.
Harapan is depending on BN to attract Malay voters. Still, studies have shown a greater likelihood that BN Malay voters will transfer their votes to Perikatan Nasional (PN) candidates instead, especially in 39 Malay-majority seats in the state.
To form the next Selangor state government, a coalition must secure at least 29 out of 56 seats in the state assembly to obtain a simple majority.
“This round of state elections is mostly a contestation on the religiosity of either side, as another wave of Islamic revivalism is sweeping over Muslim-majority nations,” Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, told Selangor Journal.
“So, I think Harapan is barking up the wrong tree by emphasising socioeconomic issues,” he said.
Oh suggested that the coalition should engage in honest and open conversations with the voters, highlighting the differences between religious beliefs and economic progress as the block is up against two Malay parties exclusively driving race and religion issues.
Azmi believes it would be best for Harapan to fight the racial and religious rhetoric used by PN in its campaigns with facts.
“PN is very comfortable with these rhetorics; they know they can gain a lot of sympathy votes if they use these particular issues. But in Selangor, the below-40-year voters comprise the bulk of the voters, and these kinds of voters are not inclined to tie themselves to a political party. So if Harapan- BN uses contemporary issues, it can attract these 40-year-olds and those younger to secure a victory,” he said.
Leveraging stability
Political stability is another aspect that is often overlooked, said security and political analyst Dr Noor Nirwandy Mat Noordin.
“There were a lot of political crises after GE14 that led to the changing of prime ministers. It’s a situation people don’t want to repeat, which gives Harapan justification to acknowledge the country’s stability which people enjoy today,” he told Selangor Journal.
“The state polls are definitely a strong test for Harapan-BN, but due to the stability (of the country) in the past eight or nine months, it can decrease the onslaught of the PN wave, especially in the states governed by Harapan- BN, namely Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang.”
Nirwandy added that while it would be difficult for Harapan to wrestle Kelantan from the opposition, some constituencies may experience growth as voters opt for stability.
As an example, he named Pedu in Kedah, where BN chairman Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid, a former minister, will be contesting.
“Penetrating states like Kelantan would be challenging due to the demographics and the polarisation of the political scenario there, like the ideologies.
But it’s different for Kedah and Terengganu.
“So, Harapan should shift its campaign to how it offers stability and can achieve it. They need to get people to acknowledge that stability is also essential, other than the cost of living.”
This article first appeared in the Selangor Journal monthly August 2023 edition, published on August 5, 2023.
