KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 — External trade is expected to recover in 2024 in view of improving electrical and electronic (E&E) exports and better export performance by regional countries, said MIDF Research today.
It also maintained its projection that exports and imports will grow by 5.2 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively, this year.
“Apart from the turnaround in the global E&E market, we expect continued (albeit moderate) economic growth in China and the United States (US) to support export growth this year.
“Nevertheless, we opine that several downside risks could affect global trade this year, like increased geopolitical and trade tensions, sharper slowdown in major economies, and still sluggish global manufacturing activities,” it said in a note today.
Given the sharper export fall and smaller trade surplus, MIDF Research said external trade would be the reason behind more moderate economic growth for Malaysia in 2024.
The country’s total trade declined sharply at 4.3 per cent year-on-year in December 2023 — falling for the ninth consecutive month, reflecting the continued fall in exports — while imports increased for the second month.
The weak exports, together with growing imports, resulted in a reduced trade surplus of RM11.8 billion — the smallest surplus since June 2020.
“For the full year 2023, the 8.0 per cent year-on-year decline in exports was larger than our estimate, considering the sharper fall in December 2023.
“Nevertheless, we still expect the recovery in external demand will support better export performance, going forward, in view of better regional trade performance,” it said.
MIDF Research foresees Malaysia’s external trade will remain in surplus with the expectation of improved E&E exports and overall external recovery.
However, the size of the surplus may be capped by increased dependency on imports for products such as transport equipment, machinery, chemicals, agriculture products, and crude petroleum.
Going forward, it expects improved shipments to major markets like China and the US to support external trade recovery in 2024.
“Nevertheless, demand from the US could be constrained by the high borrowing costs, which may lead to moderate US economic growth this year,” MIDF Research said.
— Bernama
