NEW DELHI, April 5 — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, confident of winning a national election starting this month, has set an ambitious target of roughly doubling the economy and exports this decade, according to a government document seen by Reuters.
Modi has highlighted economic growth as one of his biggest achievements in election rallies and has “guaranteed” making the economy the third largest in the world from fifth now if he wins a third term in a row as polls predict.
He has already asked officials to finalise plans by around May to expand the economy to US$6.69 trillion (RM31.7 trillion) in nominal terms by 2030, from around US$3.51 trillion (RM16.6 trillion) currently, according to the October document. Though short on concrete details of how to achieve that, it has been a basis for officials’ meetings.
When he took office for a second term five years ago, Modi promised to take the economy to US$5 trillion (RM23.7 trillion) by the current fiscal year, but partly due to COVID-19 related disruptions, meeting that target is virtually impossible now.
Modi‘s office and the finance ministry did not reply to requests seeking comment.
Independent economist Saugata Bhattacharya said if the real GDP can grow by 6-6.5 per cent, inflation stays around 4.5 per cent and the rupee continues to depreciate against the dollar by 1-1.5 per cent every year, the economy can double in seven years in nominal dollar terms.
“The issue that a vision document should address is the set of structural reforms required to sustain this or a higher real GDP growth rate over a long time, a very difficult feat,” he said.
The economy is, however, expected to have grown by around 8 per cent in the last fiscal year ended March 31, the fastest among major countries, on the back of strong manufacturing and construction activity driven by government spending.
Opinion polls show Modi will win big in the elections starting on April 19 and ending after seven phases on June 1, with vote counting on June 4.
A coalition led by his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could win nearly three-fourths of parliamentary seats in the nation of 1.42 billion people, according to a survey on Wednesday, while Congress could hit a record low.
He would be the first person since India’s post-independence Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to win three consecutive terms.
— Reuters
