By Yasmin Ramlan
SHAH ALAM, April 23 — Less than a year after the 2023 Selangor State Election was held last August, the state is preparing for another poll — this time in Kuala Kubu Baharu as a by-election on May 11.
Despite ruling party Pakatan Harapan (Harapan) having a good chance of holding onto the state seat, political analysts cautioned that several important issues could potentially affect the outcome of the by-election.
Among them include the effectiveness of local services, the overall performance of the state government, strategies employed in tackling economic obstacles, internal discord within the Unity Government, and prevailing perceptions within the state.
While Harapan may enter the by-election with an advantage, strategically addressing these various issues would be crucial to securing a successful outcome.
“Issues relating to the local authority in Kuala Kubu Baharu reflect the state government’s performance in enhancing the well-being of the residents through efforts like road maintenance, effective waste management, drainage upkeep, and the maintenance of public facilities.
“These issues are some of the priorities in the upcoming by-election,” said University Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections lecturer, associate professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi, to Selangor Journal recently.
Addressing the present political climate and stability, Awang Azman underscored the importance of the Unity Government’s response to the Harapan vote boycott by former party leaders or contentious figures within Barisan Nasional (BN).
He said the significance of existing government and party mechanisms in managing such challenges would greatly impact the poll’s voting pattern.
“Local voters would consider various factors, including the progression of the local economy and the effectiveness of the previous incumbent’s service, in determining their support for the Unity Government.
“Additionally, the government’s handling of economic issues significantly influences the behaviour of local voters,” he said.
Former Kuala Kubu Baharu state assemblyman Lee Kee Hiong died on March 21 after a long battle with cancer.
Lee, 58, had represented her constituency since 2013, winning the seat in three consecutive state elections.
Kuala Kubu Baharu is a traditional DAP seat. In the 15th general election (GE15), the party retained its seat with a 4,119 majority. Lee garnered 14,862 total votes against Teoh Kien Hong from Perikatan Nasional (PN) (10,743 votes), R. Siva Prakash from Muda (1,186 votes), and Chng Boon Lai from Parti Rakyat Malaysia (527 votes).
The state seat consists of 46.4 per cent Malay voters, 30.7 per cent Chinese voters, 18 per cent Indian, and 5 per cent of other ethnicities.
The Election Commission (EC) announced that the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election will be held on May 11, with nomination day on April 27. Early voting is on May 7.
Confidence in leadership
Echoing a similar sentiment, Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan described that the potential outcome of the polls is likely to be influenced by the political landscape in Selangor.
He noted that stability has persisted under Harapan’s governance despite the challenges posed by opposition PN in the 2023 state election.
“The political stability of Selangor, particularly under Harapan, is being well-maintained despite it facing significant challenges from PN in the last state polls.
“The perception among people of Selangor towards the current government, influenced by minimal interference from PN and Umno, indicates Harapan has effectively governed the state.
“This perception instils satisfaction and confidence among Harapan supporters in Selangor, particularly in the leadership of the Menteri Besar (Dato’ Seri Amirudin Shari),” he said.
Despite the potential hurdles that Harapan may encounter, both Azmi and Awang Azman anticipated that DAP would retain their seat, with either a similar majority or a reduced one due to the above factors.
According to Azmi, Amirudin’s satisfactory performance will play a crucial role in the upcoming by-election.
“The main challenge lies in gaining the trust of Malay voters. However, comparing the current landscape to the previous state election in Selangor, there hasn’t been much change, whether it’s the ‘green wave’ or the Harapan Unity Government.
“The political landscape remains relatively stable,” he said.
3R issues a determinant
Awang Azman warned that mishandling race and religion issues throughout the by-election could result in a reduction of votes for Harapan, although it may not necessarily lead to defeat.
He suggested that this could be prevented if the Sultan of Selangor states his firm and uncompromising stand against any party playing up 3R issues.
“Harapan, particularly through the Home Ministry and MCMC (Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission), is perceived as being less firm and less committed to utilising their power to address sensitive issues.
“Moreover, Harapan needs to mobilise its machinery cohesively to promote the moderate and progressive aspects of building a prosperous Malaysia, emphasising inclusivity across all demographics, and taking strict and decisive action to firmly reject the usage of 3R issues,” he said.
Both Awang Azman and Azmi proposed that DAP should consider fielding a Malay candidate to appeal to the majority of Malay voters, who comprise approximately 46 per cent of the total constituents.
They pointed out that the party should be wary of the race and religion issues expected to be played up by the Opposition.
“PN, as the Opposition party, is expected to utilise race and religion issues, unless there is rigorous monitoring by authorities such as from the MCMC or police throughout the campaign period.
“If this escalate and get out of control, it could benefit PN. Or at least they could reduce the total votes won by Harapan in this upcoming by-election,” said Awang Azman.
Meanwhile, Azmi opined that while race and religion issues are critical, they may not hold the same significance for non-Malay voters.
“Given that non-Malay voters are expected to show consistent support to DAP, regardless of the candidate, there is no doubt about their trust in the party, as it has remained steadfast since GE15.
“So, the strategy is to field a Malay candidate in order to secure the support of the Malay voters,” he said.
Azmi anticipated that the upcoming by-election would be a tough one for Harapan, citing recent controversial issues such as the case involving socks bearing with the word “Allah” at a convenience store in Selangor.
He highlighted that for DAP to gain the trust of Malay voters, the party must persuade them to vote irrespective of whether the candidate is Malay or non-Malay. He stressed the critical role that race and religion will play in this regard.
“Since Umno is currently not in a strong position, they are unlikely to persuade even their own members to support the DAP candidate. Hence, fielding a Malay candidate is seen as a strategy for DAP to earn the trust of Malay voters,” he said.
On April 17, news portal Free Malaysia Today reported that DAP is likely to field a Malay candidate for the by-election.
It quoted a party source as saying that Hulu Selangor Municipal Council member Saripah Bakar is currently in the lead to represent Harapan.
However, on April 19, Harapan election director for Kuala Kubu Baharu Ng Sze Han clarified that DAP has yet to decide on a candidate, pointing out that the list of candidates is extensive and with people from various racial backgrounds.
