By Amar Shah Mohsen
SHAH ALAM, Aug 11 — Core support for Pakatan Harapan (Harapan) among non-Malays in Selangor has not wavered and will be a key factor for the coalition and its political partner Barisan Nasional (BN) to clinch victory in the country’s most developed state, said think tank Ilham Centre.
It said based on its July 29-August 8 study, Perikatan Nasional (PN) is facing difficulty making inroads into this segment of the electorate.
Not even the opposition’s aggressive campaigning is expected to impact on non-Malay sentiments, the firm said, adding that voter turnout for this group could remain high, contributing to overall results in Selangor.
“PN appears to lack ideas on strategies to attract non-Malay support. If this trend persists, PN will be forced to forget about Chinese and Indian votes and instead focus solely on the Malays.
“This will narrow PN’s chances of wresting the state. It will need at least 70 per cent of Malay support to surpass the minimum number of votes required to win,” it said in a statement today.
Ilham Centre said while PN is expected to grow the number of seats it holds in the state, this will only involve Malay-majority constituencies, particularly in northern Selangor.
But this will not be sufficient for the coalition to take over the state, it said.
The firm expects the Hulu Kelang constituency, which will see former menteri besar Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali taking on Harapan’s Juwairiya Zulkifli, to host a fierce fight, and that victory could go either way.
Separately, Ilham Centre forecasted that all states facing elections tomorrow — Selangor, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu — will remain status quo.
In Negeri Sembilan, the think tank expects a landslide victory in favour of the unity pact, owing to the strong core BN support among the Malays and Harapan’s unwavering support in Chinese-majority constituencies.
“Only three constituencies could see tough fights, namely, Ampangan, Bagan Pinang and Gemas. These represent PN’s only opportunity to deny Harapan-BN a total domination of Negeri Sembilan.”
As for Penang, Ilham Centre sees PN potentially only winning in Malay-majority seats like Penaga, Pinang Tunggal, Permatang Berangan and Sungai Dua, with close contests expected in Telok Ayer Tawar, Permatang Pasir and Penanti.
The remaining seats, said the firm, will likely go to Harapan and BN.
Likewise, Ilham Centre predicts a status quo in the three states under PAS’ administration, with only a few marginal seats possibly going Harapan-BN’s way.
It said while there is high dissatisfaction in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah towards the respective administrations, it found in its recent survey that voters are not convinced by Harapan and BN’s desire to capture the states.
This is attributed to the lack of prominent candidates in the election, and the coalition’s failure to ignite a “wave” in these states.
