By Nadirah H. Rodzi
SELANGOR is currently under intense scrutiny as the Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) ‘green wave’ of political Islam and Malay nationalism seeks to wrest control of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (Harapan) coalition stronghold in the upcoming state polls.
While there have been mixed opinions, most observers believe Harapan would retain Selangor — the wealthiest state in peninsular Malaysia — following more than a decade of good track record.
Prof Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, projected that Harapan-BN would be able to win 48 seats out of 56 in the upcoming state polls, which would allow the coalition to form a state government.
The political analyst explained that for a seat to be considered safe for Harapan, the maximum percentage of Malay voters in a constituency should be 60 per cent.
“Safe seats for Harapan in Selangor would be those with 50 per cent Malay voters and 50 per cent non-Malay voters because non-Malay voters, including those supporting BN, are more likely to vote for Harapan-BN candidates. Therefore, if Malay voters are not the majority, it is a safe seat for them,” he said.
Expressing similar thoughts, security and political analyst Dr Noor Nirwandy Mat Noordin said these seats — mainly in the centre of Selangor — are more balanced as the constituents seek stability rather than be provoked by racial and religious issues.
“It’s not easy for PN’s green wave to penetrate these areas,” he told Selangor Journal.
“Coastal areas, constituencies like Tanjung Karang, Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, and Kuala Selangor … are some of the Malay constituencies. However, these seats are also getting safer because of the realisation that they have to stop and go for stability,” he said.
The term ‘green wave’ was coined after the general election in November 2022 saw Parti Islam SeMalaysia (Pas), identified by its green and white moon emblem, winning in 43 out of 222 contested wards, making it the biggest party in Parliament.
The Islamist party plays a significant role in PN and receives substantial support from the rural regions east and north of Peninsular Malaysia.
PN, led by former prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, is expected to mount a severe challenge against Selangor in the upcoming state polls on August 12, given its performance in northern Selangor during the general election.
Despite that being its first foray into Federal polls, the coalition won six out of 22 parliamentary seats.
The gains made by PN in Selangor indicate their progress in the Malay-dominated regions throughout the country, which resulted in them becoming the preferred choice for Malay voters, replacing Umno, the new partner of Harapan.
Harapan and former nemesis BN allied to form a unity government after the last general election in November resulted in a hung Parliament.
Guilt voting
Having ruled Selangor for 15 years since 2008, Selangor remains a valuable asset for Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat, as all three state chiefs since 2008 have come from his party.
According to a survey conducted by Endeavour-MGC, out of 1,068 Malay voters in Selangor, 42 per cent expressed their intention to vote for the ruling Harapan coalition in the forthcoming Selangor state elections.
PN was the second preference with 33 per cent, followed by 15 per cent for BN and 1 per cent for the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda).
About 9 per cent of the respondents were unsure about their choice, while none backed Parti Pejuang Tanah Air.
A political scientist at Jeffrey Sachs Centre on Sustainable Development (JSC), Sunway University, Professor Wong Chin Huat predicts Harapan would win at least 32, a slight majority at worst to 42 at best.
“Harapan-BN’s safe seats would be those they can win after factoring in a strong swing of BN votes to PN and a low turnout amongst Harapan supporters. This would include at least 13 out of 15 seats contested by DAP, 13 of the seats contested by PKR and Amanah (most of whom have at least 40 per cent non-Malays), and two seats contested by Umno.
“That gives precisely 28 seats or half of the total.”
PN’s safe seats, he said, would be those it can win even when the swing from Harapan-BN is somewhat limited.
“That would include four seats contested by Umno, three by Amanah and one seat contested by PKR. The remaining 20 seats may go either depending on how strong the swing from BN to PN is and how low the turnout rate amongst Harapan supporters is. Overall, Harapan-BN should be able to retain Selangor, but the size of its majority may depend on the swing and turnout rate,” he said.
However, the problem with BN core supporters is they are divided, said Azmi.
Another pre-election survey among Malay voters in Selangor found no significant vote transferability between Harapan and BN, revealing that BN Malay voters may not necessarily transfer their votes to Harapan candidates in the state election and vice versa, despite the two parties forming a coalition government at the Federal level.
The survey also found a greater likelihood that BN Malay voters will transfer their votes to PN candidates instead, thus giving it an advantage in the election, especially in 39 Malay-majority seats in the state.
“For example, if in one constituency there’s a DAP candidate, and another is a PN-Pas candidate, Umno supporters would be more inclined to vote for Pas so that they won’t feel guilty as they are voting for race and religion. This is why I say if 70 per cent of the constituency is Malay, it can be considered a very safe seat for PN.
“Let’s take Batang Kali in Hulu Selangor, for example … where most of the Malay voters are. I think Harapan needs to work harder in those areas,” said Azmi.
This article first appeared in the Selangor Journal monthly August 2023 edition, published on August 5, 2023.
