By Amar Shah Mohsen
WHILE the 2018 general elections may be perceived as the most memorable in Malaysian history for its impact on the nation’s political landscape, the significance of the 2008 state election in Selangor should not be downplayed.
It was, after all, the first time that Barisan Nasional’s (BN) stranglehold on the state was broken.
The then Pakatan Harapan (Harapan) coalition successfully dethroned the BN state administration led by Dr Mohamad Khir Toyo, winning 36 of the 56 available seats.
Since then, Harapan has not looked back. In fact, such has been its dominance in Selangor that it has won more seats in each subsequent state elections.
In the 2013 poll, the coalition secured 44 state constituencies, before further extending its superiority by capturing 51 seats in 2018.
While Harapan is not projected to repeat the impressive outing of five years ago in the coming state poll, many analysts believe that it would still maintain its two-thirds majority in the legislative assembly.
Clean, effective, people-centric
For observers, the secret to voters’ continued support for Harapan in the country’s most developed state is simple — economic excellence, a welfare agenda, and a clean administration that has largely stayed clear of controversies.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Azmi Hassan said the administration’s ability to effectively handle the state and its economy, including being the country’s largest contributor to the gross domestic pro-duct (GDP), has been a major draw for voters here.
In its 2022 GDP by State report released on June 27, the Statistics Department (DOSM) noted that Selangor contributed 25.5 per cent to the overall economy while also recording an annual growth of 11.9 per cent, higher than the national figure of 8.7 per cent.
For comparison, the three states under PAS’ rule that are also facing elections on August 12 — Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan — are positioned in the bottom half of DOSM’s report, respectively contributing 3.4, 2.5 and 1.8 per cent to the national GDP.
“This (Selangor’s success) doesn’t just come coincidentally. There must be proper planning,” Azmi told Selangor Journal, adding that the good economic performance has allowed the state to expand its welfare agenda.
As of this year, the state government has already rolled out 46 different initiatives under Iltizam Selangor Penyayang, ranging from cash assistance to free health screenings and affordable housing projects.
The political analyst said it is no wonder that Menteri Besar Dato’ Seri Amirudin Shari and other state leaders have been highlighting these successes when out campaigning.
“This is to demonstrate that, if you give PAS the mandate to be the state government, for example, look at what is happening to Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.”
Azmi also pointed out that since coming into state power in 2008, the Harapan government has not been embroiled in any major scandals, controversies or cases of corruption, which has been a pull factor for voters.
“I do think this resonates well with the people of Selangor, which I would describe as generally reasonable, intelligent and pragmatic.”
No strong alternative
Azmi said voters in Selangor also have no impetus to vote for other parties owing to the fact that there is no strong alternative in the state, which remains true for the upcoming election.
From the voters’s perspective, he said there may be a sense of fear that if PAS and Perikatan Nasional (PN) come into power, Selangor could end up being like the states currently under the Islamist party’s rule, where race and religion issues often take precedence over issues on welfare and the economy.
“For me, it’s very scary if we look at Kelantan or Terengganu, because PN has nothing to show in the event it is given a chance to administer (Selangor). They can’t say that Selangor will be as developed as Kedah,” he said.
When you’re dealing with racial and religious issues, Harapan will always lose to PN. But if you deal with administrative efficiency, PN has nothing to show.”
Azmi said this is also why PAS and Bersatu continue to propagate issues of race, religion and royalty to garner support.
Ilham Centre research fellow Mujibu Abd Muis echoed this sentiment, adding that there are not many prominent political figures among the opposition, past and present, who have been able to lead the charge against Harapan in Selangor.
Even former menteri besar Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali, who is tipped to assume the post again in the event of a PN victory, has fallen out of favour among voters over the role he played in the infamous Sheraton Move in 2020, he pointed out.
“Hence, I see a huge challenge at the moment in trying to break Harapan’s dominance in Selangor,” he said when contacted.
Mujibu said Harapan’s decision to cooperate with Umno has further strengthened its position in the state, resulting in a larger pool of Malay voters.
Additionally, he said the Harapan narrative that it is vital to have the same party rule both the federal and state governments to ensure the smooth implementation of programmes, will make it even harder for PN to make further inroads in Selangor in the near future.
Addressing weaknesses
All these, however, do not mean Harapan can rest on its laurels.
Mujibu said the coalition’s main challenge moving forward would be to plug any existing weaknesses, including finding ways to recapture Malay support in Selangor, which has diminished following Bersatu’s exit in 2020.
“I see the need for them to empower their Malay components, particularly Amanah and, to a certain extent, Parti Keadilan Rakyat,” he said.
Mujibu’s remarks are not without substance and should serve as a valid concern to Harapan and BN.
In the last general election, PN won all four parliamentary seats in northern Selangor which previously belonged to either Harapan or BN, namely Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, Tanjong Karang and Hulu Selangor.
Similarly, Azmi believes that key to stopping PN’s march on Selangor in the future would be Harapan’s ability to minimise the impact of racial and religious rhetoric accentuated by the opposition coalition.
He said this can be done by its leaders portraying Malay voters in Selangor as being intelligent and rational.
“How I see it today is, even if Harapan loses a couple more seats in the coming election, it will not be because of its own weaknesses and mistakes, but rather the rhetoric being played up by PN.”
This article first appeared in the Selangor Journal monthly August 2023 edition, published on August 5, 2023.
